“PhD Means the End of Your Life” — A Harsh Reality Exposing the Fatal Flaws in Japan’s Science and Education Policy, Threatening Its Status as a Scientific Nation

 original link:「博士課程=人生終了」という残酷な現実、日本の“科学立国”を揺るがす《文部科学行政》の致命的欠陥

(The article is accompanied by a photo of a dead cicada like this, to illustrate the miserable condition of Japanese PhD students.)

Compared to major countries, the number of people obtaining a doctoral degree in Japan is small. Furthermore, while the number is increasing in other countries, it is decreasing in Japan. This is largely because many people who complete the doctoral program often cannot find employment. To overcome this situation, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) aims for the "Revitalization of Science". However, achieving this goal will not be easy ?This is the 161st installment of the series by Yukio Noguchi.

### The Serious Problem of the Sharp Decline in Doctoral Program Enrollment

At a MEXT expert panel held in September, shocking data was presented, showing that "the number of doctoral program entrants has decreased by 14% over the past 20 years, with a particularly sharp decline of over 40% in the humanities and social sciences". Although Japan continues to see a decline in university entrants due to the falling birthrate, the rate of decrease in doctoral programs significantly exceeds this, shaking the foundation for supplying young researchers.

Japan's low number of doctoral degree recipients stands out in international comparisons. According to the "Science and Technology Indicators 2025" compiled by MEXT's National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP), the number of doctoral degree recipients per million people in Japan was 123 (FY2022).

In contrast, the figure is approximately 350 for South Korea (FY2023) and the United Kingdom (FY2022). The United States (FY2020) has about 280 recipients.

Comparing FY2010 with the latest fiscal year, the number has increased in all other countries, but it has decreased in Japan (6% decrease) and France (12% decrease).

This low supply of doctoral degree recipients in Japan directly impacts not only universities and research institutions but also corporate research and development and professional positions in government. It signifies that Japan is losing the foundation for its position as a science and technology-oriented nation.

The biggest reason for the decline in doctoral program entrants is the serious problem that "there are no jobs after completing the doctoral program". Posts are rampant on social media such as "PhD course, life over," "PhD graduates face an employment ice age," and "Do not come to the PhD program! Go back now!" which discourage young people from pursuing a doctorate.

The hardships in the doctoral program are often not related to research but are financial struggles and life issues such as anxiety over an undecided career path.

In Europe and the United States, doctoral graduates have diverse employment opportunities, including corporate research, consulting, and government sectors. In contrast, in Japan, employment is still biased towards universities and public research institutions.

Moreover, the lack of posts means that structural mismatches remain unresolved. Because the structural demand for doctoral human resources to carry out basic and cutting-edge research is low and treatment has not improved, avoiding the doctoral program has become a rational choice for the younger generation.

The background to this includes the cumulative effects of the reduction in university faculty positions since the 1990s, a decrease in the operating expense subsidies for national universities, and stalled corporate research investment.

### Predicting the Success of MEXT's "Revitalization of Science" Strategy

In response to this critical situation, MEXT published recommendations from an expert panel on the "Revitalization of Science" on November 18. It outlines the following ambitious targets for FY2030:

* **Overseas Dispatch of Japanese Researchers:** Cumulative total of 30,000 (FY2023 actual: 3,623 people) 

* **Number of Doctoral Program Entrants/Recipients:** 20,000 (FY2020 actual recipients: 15,564 people) 

* **Number of Challenging Research Projects Adopted:** Double (Approx. 6,500 projects in FY2024) 

* **Proportion of AI-related Papers:** Top 5 globally (10th in 2024) 

These targets aim to strengthen research personnel in both quantitative and qualitative aspects, which is the correct direction. However, the question is whether they can be realized.

The first hurdle to achieving the goals is the aforementioned fact that the operating expense subsidies for national universities are decreasing. The expansion of doctoral programs requires massive funding for scholarships, Research Assistant (RA) salaries, pre-enrollment living support, and overseas travel expenses. However, the operating expense subsidies have been on a downward trend since peaking in FY2004. Without increased financial support, it is difficult to see how the goal of 20,000 entrants to the doctoral program can be achieved.

The second hurdle is the current over-reliance on fixed-term posts. Unless doctoral graduates can secure stable employment, the situation where "the doctoral program = a high-risk choice" will not improve. Yet, there is a high proportion of fixed-term posts, such as specially appointed assistant professors and researchers, and the new hiring of permanent faculty positions remains suppressed. While Europe places "employment stability" at the center of its policy for doctoral human resources, Japan is still heavily reliant on fixed-term posts.

The third hurdle is the low rate of doctoral hiring in corporations. Japanese companies' hiring of PhDs is extremely low compared to Europe and the United States. According to a 2023 survey by the Japan Business Federation (Keidanren), the total number of employees with a doctoral degree among responding companies was about 12,000, remaining at less than 1% of the total workforce. Their presence is thus weaker even compared to those with an MBA or a Master's degree. Organizations without PhDs cannot secure personnel capable of advanced research, which could have a long-term impact on industrial competitiveness.

The fourth hurdle is the problem with the research evaluation system. Evaluation biased towards the number of papers and the Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research system, which seeks short-term results, weakens the incentive for doctoral students and young researchers to undertake bold research. The policy goal of "doubling the number of challenging research projects adopted" is commendable, but its effect will be limited without a reform of the entire system.

### Three Necessary Transformations to Achieve Policy Goals

To realize the government's goals, the following structural transformations are necessary:

1.  **Fundamental Enhancement of Financial Support:** Expansion of non-repayable scholarships, raising RA salaries to around \200,000?\250,000 per month, and expanding tuition fee exemptions. In Europe and the US, most doctoral students receive salaries, stabilizing their lives. Japan needs to move closer to this situation.

2.  **Expansion of Permanent Posts:** The ratio of fixed-term employment for post-docs (postdoctoral researchers) needs to be reduced, and the number of permanent posts in university faculty, research institutions, and corporate research labs must be increased. Creating mechanisms for companies to actively hire doctoral personnel, like in the US, is also important.

3.  **Strengthening of International Research Networks:** In addition to the goal of sending 30,000 researchers overseas, support is needed for securing posts upon their return and for the continuation of international collaborative research.

The decline in Japan's doctoral program entrants is a serious crisis that threatens the nation's scientific and technological foundation itself. Creating a society where entering the doctoral program is a "rational choice for challenge and growth" rather than a "life risk" is the first step toward Japan's regeneration as a science-oriented nation.

For this to happen, structural support for young researchers, industrial policies that utilize doctoral human resources, and the strengthening of university research infrastructure are indispensable reforms. The actions taken over the next five to ten years will determine the future of Japan's scientific capabilities and national competitiveness.